30 Aug Fortress Poland? Uncertainty Remains as Strategic Defence Review Marks New Era for Weapons, Force Trade-Offs
AVASCENT WHITE PAPER
By Dr. Dominik Kimla & Joe Walsh
MSPO 2017 in Anticipation of the Technical Modernisation Plan Revision
The 25th jubilee International Defense Industry Exhibition (MSPO) in Kielce presented the opportunity to analyze the Strategic Defence Review (SDR), which establishes an overall vision for Polish defence procurement priorities through 2032. The SDR is a robust response to Russian aggression, which is seen as the main threat not only for Poland, but for NATO allies in the region. To counter Moscow, Poland aspires to at least double its armed forces to 200,000 soldiers by 2025, and increase defence spending from 2.0% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, to 2.2% of GDP in 2021 and 2.5% of GDP by 2030. As Dr. Dominik Kimla and Joe Walsh analyze in this white paper however, this is not the start of a wild procurement rush. The development of military capabilities will be determined by a cost-effects ratio of newly procured military hardware, and a national “fortress” concept, which links short- and medium- range air defence with offensive systems such as rocket and traditional artillery, attack helicopters, air-to-surface guided missiles, submarine-based cruise missiles, and anti-tank missiles. This fortress approach can be viewed as the Polish equivalent of the well-known Anti-Access Area-Denial (A2/AD) concepts now employed by a wide range of countries globally. These plans fit into a broader economic, demographic and political context, which will shape how much of the SDR is actually implemented and on what timeframe. Download the White Paper for further analysis of the impact of the SDR on defence procurement priorities.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
- Dr. Dominik Kimla is a Warsaw-based consulting associate at Avascent, supporting the firm’s operations in Poland and broader Europe. He specialises in Central and Eastern European defence markets, military offsets, and customer and competitor analyses. For more information, contact: firstname.lastname@example.org.
- Joe Walsh is the Head of Avascent’s London office. In this role, he serves as lead Project Director for engagements throughout Europe, supporting the firm’s corporate and financial clients across a broad range of growth-oriented consulting engagements in aerospace, defence, and government-driven markets. For more information, contact: email@example.com.
Avascent is the leading independent strategy and management consulting firm for government-driven markets, with more than 30 years’ experience supporting corporate leaders, investors and government stakeholders in the aerospace, defence, security, and public services markets. Our growing presence in London, Paris, Warsaw, Ottawa, Tokyo, and Washington DC, combined with our worldwide network of partners, reflects our clients’ distinct needs. We operate in highly integrated teams within and across borders, united by a shared set of values and commitment to serving our clients.